ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-4 V-Varen Nagasaki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 26 Mar 2025

📅26/03/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
4.71
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
45%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.9
No
45%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.19
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.45
6+ Goals
10%
13.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
9.07
1/2
8%
23.4
1/X EV+ ✗
12%
17.45
X/1
12%
10.75
X/2
15%
3.99
X/X
7%
5.24
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.0
2/X
7%
15.4
Value flag · 1/X at 17.45 — our 12% vs market 3.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
18%
+10.7pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.7pp
45%
Away Win
58%
-13.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
49%
+6.4pp
45%
BTTS No
51%
-6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ThespaKusatsu Gunma EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 62%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
232 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 471 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ThespaKusatsu Gunma
1W-0D-5L
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
354 Passes 336
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
22.09.2024 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-0 HT 0-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
27.04.2024 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-2 HT 1-2 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
09.09.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-1 HT 0-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
08.04.2023 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-0 HT 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
18.06.2022 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-0 HT 2-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
30.03.2022 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 2-3 HT 1-2 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ThespaKusatsu Gunma
1-4
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
50% Ball Possession 50%
19 Total Shots 21
6 Shots on Target 10
6 Corners 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs V-Varen Nagasaki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

V-Varen Nagasaki swept aside ThespaKusatsu Gunma 4-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had V-Varen Nagasaki as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, ThespaKusatsu Gunma had 50% of the ball to V-Varen Nagasaki's 50%, shots finished 19-21.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, V-Varen Nagasaki led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for ThespaKusatsu Gunma and 1.83 for V-Varen Nagasaki.

What was the final score of ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-4 V-Varen Nagasaki in the Japan - League Cup on 26/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Before kick-off our model rated an V-Varen Nagasaki win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split ThespaKusatsu Gunma 29%, draw 26%, V-Varen Nagasaki 45%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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