Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 Sagan Tosu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 26 Mar 2025

Matsumoto Yamaga
1-0 HT 0-0
Sagan Tosu
📅26/03/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Japan - League Cup – 2025

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagan Tosu Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.17
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
38%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.45
Over 2.5
40%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.19
No
57%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.02
2-3 Goals
36%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
5.93
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
5.55
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
9%
16.1
X/1
10%
6.32
X/2
13%
4.44
X/X
15%
3.56
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
17%
3.29
2/X
4%
15.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 60% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
29%
+5.2pp
29%
Draw
30%
-1.4pp
38%
Away Win
42%
-3.9pp
60%
Under 2.5
65%
-5.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
35%
+5.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
+1.9pp
57%
BTTS No
58%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Matsumoto Yamaga v Sagan Tosu — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 45%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
0.99/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/2.12
-28% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +54% / -37%
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
197 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 455 · 82%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.0 Yellow Cards –

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagan Tosu Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sagan Tosu
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.46 xG 0.47
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
216 Passes 391
69% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 30
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.11.2019 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-0 HT 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP
20.04.2019 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 HT 1-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
12.07.2017 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-2 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JPK
24.10.2015 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-2 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
10.05.2015 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-1 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP
18.03.2015 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 2-1 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JLK

Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 Sagan Tosu — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
1-0
AWAY Sagan Tosu
37% Ball Possession 63%
6 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagan Tosu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matsumoto Yamaga squeezed past Sagan Tosu 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 29% / 38% — and on the day Matsumoto Yamaga made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Matsumoto Yamaga had 37% of the ball to Sagan Tosu's 63%, shots finished 6-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sagan Tosu led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.17 for Sagan Tosu.

What was the final score of Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagan Tosu?

Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 Sagan Tosu in the Japan - League Cup on 26/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagan Tosu?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sagan Tosu win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Matsumoto Yamaga 34%, draw 29%, Sagan Tosu 38%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sagan Tosu) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sagan Tosu) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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