Osaka 1-2 Jubilo Iwata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 26 Mar 2025

📅26/03/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.5
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
45%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.78
Over 2.5
44%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.95
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
3.7
6+ Goals
8%
15.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.95 — our 34% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
6.26
1/2
7%
24.7
1/X
7%
15.3
X/1
12%
7.83
X/2
13%
4.32
X/X
10%
4.72
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.53
2/X
6%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
25%
+7.8pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.2pp
45%
Away Win
49%
-4.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.2pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osaka EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Jubilo Iwata EU Bookmakers 54%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +40% / +40%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +100% /
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
228 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 434 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osaka
1-2
AWAY Jubilo Iwata
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Osaka vs Jubilo Iwata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jubilo Iwata edged past Osaka 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Jubilo Iwata as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Osaka had 49% of the ball to Jubilo Iwata's 51%, shots finished 13-6.

What was the final score of Osaka vs Jubilo Iwata?

Osaka 1-2 Jubilo Iwata in the Japan - League Cup on 26/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osaka vs Jubilo Iwata?

Before kick-off our model rated an Jubilo Iwata win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Osaka 33%, draw 22%, Jubilo Iwata 45%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jubilo Iwata) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Jubilo Iwata) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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