Municipal Liberia 1-1 Guanacasteca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Costa Rica - Premier League, 26 Mar 2025

📅26/03/2025 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.86
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
24%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.82
No
44%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
11%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
-4.1pp
31%
Draw
26%
+4.1pp
24%
Away Win
24%
+0.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
51%
+5.4pp
44%
BTTS No
49%
-5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Municipal Liberia EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Guanacasteca EU Bookmakers 27%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -7%
1.84/0.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.44
+11% / +76% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
405 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Municipal Liberia
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Guanacasteca
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
11.01.2025 Guanacasteca Guanacasteca 1-0 HT 0-0 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia KOSTA
28.10.2024 Guanacasteca Guanacasteca 2-0 HT 1-0 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia KOSTA
15.09.2024 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia 0-1 HT 0-0 Guanacasteca Guanacasteca KOSTA
13.04.2024 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia 1-0 HT 1-0 Guanacasteca Guanacasteca KOSTA
22.02.2024 Guanacasteca Guanacasteca 1-1 HT 1-0 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia KOSTA
23.11.2023 Guanacasteca Guanacasteca 4-2 HT 2-1 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia KOSTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Municipal Liberia
1-1
AWAY Guanacasteca
64% Ball Possession 36%
14 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 0
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Municipal Liberia vs Guanacasteca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Municipal Liberia and Guanacasteca shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Municipal Liberia at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Municipal Liberia had 64% of the ball to Guanacasteca's 36%, shots finished 14-6.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guanacasteca led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Municipal Liberia and 1.50 for Guanacasteca.

What was the final score of Municipal Liberia vs Guanacasteca?

Municipal Liberia 1-1 Guanacasteca in the Costa Rica - Premier League on 26/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Municipal Liberia vs Guanacasteca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Municipal Liberia win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Municipal Liberia 46%, draw 31%, Guanacasteca 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Municipal Liberia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Municipal Liberia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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