Ukrayna 1-3 İsveç — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 26 Mar 2026

📅26/03/2026 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.99
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
38%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.67
Over 2.5
41%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.62
2-3 Goals
36%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
4.16
6+ Goals
8%
20.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.62 — our 36% vs market 31.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.9
1/2
10%
29.0
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
13%
6.43
X/2
13%
4.89
X/X
13%
4.05
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
15%
3.21
2/X
12%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
30%
+0.2pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.1pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-3.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.8pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ukrayna EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY İsveç EU Bookmakers 45%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
0.58/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.09
-70% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +48% / -46%
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
249 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 79%
10.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.8
13.0 Crosses 15.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ukrayna
3W-0D-1L
AWAY İsveç
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
1.36 xG 1.28
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
660 Passes 534
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 27
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.06.2021 İsveç İsveç 1-2 HT 1-1 Ukrayna Ukrayna AVR
11.06.2012 Ukrayna Ukrayna 2-1 HT 0-0 İsveç İsveç AVR
10.08.2011 Ukrayna Ukrayna 0-1 HT 0-0 İsveç İsveç HAZ
01.06.2008 İsveç İsveç 0-1 HT 0-0 Ukrayna Ukrayna HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ukrayna
1-3
AWAY İsveç
68% Ball Possession 32%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 3
474 Passes 202
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
POST-MATCH Ukrayna vs İsveç
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İsveç beat Ukrayna 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 30% / 32% / 38% — and on the day İsveç made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ukrayna had 68% of the ball to İsveç's 32%, shots finished 10-10.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Ukrayna had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Ukrayna and 0.75 for İsveç.

What was the final score of Ukrayna vs İsveç?

Ukrayna 1-3 İsveç in the World Cup Qualifiers on 26/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ukrayna vs İsveç?

Before kick-off our model rated an İsveç win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Ukrayna 30%, draw 32%, İsveç 38%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (İsveç), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (İsveç) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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