Stoke City U21 1-2 Newcastle United U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League 2 (League 1), 26 Apr 2024

📅26/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.33
Draw
20%
4.08
Away
33%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
3.59
Over 2.5
66%
1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.31
No
46%
3.14
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
2-3 Goals
32%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
22%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
5%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
23%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
39%
+8.2pp
20%
Draw
21%
-1.1pp
33%
Away Win
40%
-7.1pp
34%
Under 2.5
24%
+10.2pp
66%
Over 2.5
76%
-10.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
72%
-17.9pp
46%
BTTS No
28%
+17.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stoke City U21 EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle United U21 EU Bookmakers 45%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -48% / -48%
2.33/2.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.41
+48% / -44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -19%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
358 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.5 Crosses 27.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stoke City U21
1-2
AWAY Newcastle United U21
0.66 xG 1.90
35% Ball Possession 65%
5 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
231 Passes 521
69% Pass Accuracy 86%
6 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Stoke City U21 vs Newcastle United U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United U21 edged past Stoke City U21 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Stoke City U21 at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (66%) came in.

On the day, Stoke City U21 had 35% of the ball to Newcastle United U21's 65%, shots finished 5-16, expected goals 0.66 to 1.90 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Newcastle United U21's control.

What was the final score of Stoke City U21 vs Newcastle United U21?

Stoke City U21 1-2 Newcastle United U21 in the England - Premier League 2 (League 1) on 26/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stoke City U21 vs Newcastle United U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stoke City U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Stoke City U21 47%, draw 20%, Newcastle United U21 33%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Stoke City U21) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Stoke City U21) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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