HJK Helsinki 3-1 VPS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.72
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.07
Over 2.5
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.05
2-3 Goals
42%
1.89
4-5 Goals
20%
3.21
6+ Goals
11%
10.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.05 — our 27% vs market 20.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.21
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.1
X/1
18%
4.39
X/2
11%
9.5
X/X
9%
5.61
2/1
9%
21.8
2/2
13%
7.22
2/X
6%
15.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
54%
-5.1pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.8pp
29%
Away Win
22%
+6.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.5pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY VPS EU Bookmakers 25%
-2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +27%
1.74/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.49
-12% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +47% / +35%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
404 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 78%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
21.4 Crosses 17.0
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HJK Helsinki
3W-1D-2L
AWAY VPS
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.89 xG 0.99
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
427 Passes 290
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
20.09.2024 VPS VPS 1-1 HT 0-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
01.09.2024 VPS VPS 1-3 HT 1-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
17.05.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-2 HT 0-1 VPS VPS FİN
08.10.2023 VPS VPS 3-2 HT 2-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
19.04.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 4-0 HT 2-0 VPS VPS FİN
15.04.2023 VPS VPS 0-1 HT 0-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HJK Helsinki
3-1
AWAY VPS
2.05 xG 0.19
74% Ball Possession 26%
16 Total Shots 2
6 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 2
756 Passes 206
90% Pass Accuracy 72%
41 Box Touches 6
9 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH HJK Helsinki vs VPS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HJK Helsinki got the better of VPS 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had HJK Helsinki as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, HJK Helsinki had 74% of the ball to VPS's 26%, shots finished 16-2, expected goals 2.05 to 0.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, HJK Helsinki had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for HJK Helsinki and 1.17 for VPS.

What was the final score of HJK Helsinki vs VPS?

HJK Helsinki 3-1 VPS in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HJK Helsinki vs VPS?

Before kick-off our model rated a HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split HJK Helsinki 49%, draw 22%, VPS 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (HJK Helsinki) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FİN More Finland - Veikkausliiga
26 Apr 2025
15:00 Oulu vs Inter Turku Analysis →
17:00 Jaro vs KTP Kotka Analysis →