Jaro 2-3 KTP Kotka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
25%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.71
Over 2.5
39%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.88
No
57%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.91
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
16%
4.2
6+ Goals
9%
19.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.91 — our 34% vs market 29.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.77
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
10%
14.15
X/1
13%
4.5
X/2
10%
7.44
X/X
13%
4.51
2/1
8%
26.5
2/2
10%
5.95
2/X
7%
15.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-2.0pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.9pp
25%
Away Win
26%
-1.0pp
61%
Under 2.5
55%
+6.1pp
39%
Over 2.5
45%
-6.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.4pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jaro EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY KTP Kotka EU Bookmakers 29%
-8% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.56/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.36/1.28
-8% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -70% / +21%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
321 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.1
Crosses 21.4
Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jaro
2W-1D-3L
AWAY KTP Kotka
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.08.2024 Jaro Jaro 1-2 HT 0-1 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN2
14.07.2024 Jaro Jaro 5-2 HT 4-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN2
13.05.2024 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 1-0 HT 1-0 Jaro Jaro FİN2
18.09.2022 Jaro Jaro 4-2 HT 2-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FINY
26.08.2022 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 2-1 HT 0-0 Jaro Jaro FİN2
18.06.2022 Jaro Jaro 2-2 HT 1-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jaro
2-3
AWAY KTP Kotka
1.20 xG 1.84
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
185 Passes 124
62% Pass Accuracy 52%
26 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Jaro vs KTP Kotka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

KTP Kotka nicked a narrow win over Jaro 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Jaro at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Jaro had 56% of the ball to KTP Kotka's 44%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 1.20 to 1.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, KTP Kotka led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Jaro and 1.83 for KTP Kotka.

What was the final score of Jaro vs KTP Kotka?

Jaro 2-3 KTP Kotka in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jaro vs KTP Kotka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jaro win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Jaro 46%, draw 29%, KTP Kotka 25%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Jaro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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