NK Varazdin 2-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.61
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
21%
4.13
6+ Goals
10%
20.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-5.6pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.2pp
33%
Away Win
28%
+5.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.0pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 31%
-5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
1.13/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.21
-25% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -15%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
316 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 74%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
21.1 Crosses 17.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NK Varazdin
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.12 xG 0.95
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
265 Passes 294
70% Pass Accuracy 73%
17 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
21.02.2025 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
23.11.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
01.09.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-1 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
13.04.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-2 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
02.02.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-0 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
21.10.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NK Varazdin
2-1
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.12 xG 1.23
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
321 Passes 297
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH NK Varazdin vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NK Varazdin nicked a narrow win over Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 33%) promised a tight game; NK Varazdin found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, NK Varazdin had 52% of the ball to Lokomotiva Zagreb's 48%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.12 to 1.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiva Zagreb led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for NK Varazdin and 0.67 for Lokomotiva Zagreb.

What was the final score of NK Varazdin vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

NK Varazdin 2-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NK Varazdin vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated a NK Varazdin win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split NK Varazdin 39%, draw 28%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NK Varazdin) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (NK Varazdin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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