Gaziantep FK 1-3 Fenerbahçe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
5.09
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
57%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.51
Over 2.5
61%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.61
No
47%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.35
2-3 Goals
39%
2.01
4-5 Goals
26%
2.62
6+ Goals
15%
6.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
9.5
1/2 EV+ ✓
8%
19.25
1/X
6%
17.8
X/1
8%
12.85
X/2
17%
4.24
X/X
8%
7.3
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
32%
1.79
2/X
7%
15.85
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.25 — our 8% vs market 2.9%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
16%
+5.2pp
21%
Draw
20%
+1.6pp
57%
Away Win
64%
-6.8pp
39%
Under 2.5
36%
+2.8pp
61%
Over 2.5
64%
-2.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.0pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gaziantep FK EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 69%
+5% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +9%
1.22/2.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.24/0.98
+1% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +5%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
279 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 82%
16.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.8
15.5 Crosses 20.4
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gaziantep FK
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Fenerbahçe
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.75 xG 2.98
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 10
203 Passes 430
69% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 41
12 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 2
27.02.2025 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 1-4 HT 0-3 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TÜK
02.12.2024 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 3-1 HT 1-1 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
07.02.2024 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 0-2 HT 0-2 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TÜK
14.01.2024 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 0-1 HT 0-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
13.08.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 2-1 HT 2-1 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
15.01.2023 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 1-2 HT 0-1 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gaziantep FK
1-3
AWAY Fenerbahçe
0.55 xG 2.65
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 8
249 Passes 390
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 32
9 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fenerbahçe got the better of Gaziantep FK 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fenerbahçe as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Gaziantep FK had 40% of the ball to Fenerbahçe's 60%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 0.55 to 2.65.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fenerbahçe led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Gaziantep FK and 2.33 for Fenerbahçe.

What was the final score of Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe?

Gaziantep FK 1-3 Fenerbahçe in the Turkey - Super League on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Gaziantep FK 22%, draw 21%, Fenerbahçe 57%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fenerbahçe), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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