Le Havre 4-4 Metz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 26 Apr 2026

📅26/04/2026 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.61
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
20%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.18
Over 2.5
47%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
25%
X/2
6%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Le Havre win — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
58%
-1.2pp
23%
Draw
22%
+0.6pp
20%
Away Win
19%
+0.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
42%
+11.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
58%
-11.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.9pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Le Havre EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Metz EU Bookmakers 22%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -3%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
389 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.4
Crosses 15.6
Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Le Havre
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Metz
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.81 xG 0.95
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
347 Passes 313
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.09.2025 Metz Metz 0-0 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
21.04.2024 Le Havre Le Havre 0-1 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1
29.10.2023 Metz Metz 0-0 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
13.03.2023 Metz Metz 1-1 HT 1-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR2
24.10.2022 Le Havre Le Havre 2-0 HT 1-0 Metz Metz FR2
04.03.2019 Le Havre Le Havre 2-2 HT 1-0 Metz Metz FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Le Havre
4-4
AWAY Metz
1.99 xG 1.58
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
287 Passes 338
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
26 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Le Havre vs Metz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Le Havre and Metz couldn't be separated, finishing 4-4. Half-time: 2-2. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Le Havre at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Le Havre had 47% of the ball to Metz's 53%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.99 to 1.58.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Le Havre and 0.67 for Metz.

What was the final score of Le Havre vs Metz?

Le Havre 4-4 Metz in the France - Ligue 1 on 26/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Le Havre vs Metz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Le Havre win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Le Havre 57%, draw 23%, Metz 20%. The final score 4-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Le Havre) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR1 More France - Ligue 1
26 Apr 2026
16:00 Lorient vs RC Strasbourg Analysis →
18:15 Rennes vs Nantes Analysis →
18:15 Paris FC vs Lille Analysis →
21:45 Marsilya vs Nice Analysis →