Marsilya vs Nice Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Marsilya v Nice — Team-Based Signals
Marsilya vs Nice Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Marsilya
FR1
1-3
HT 0-2
Nice
FR1
Marsilya 1-1 Nice — Actual Match Statistics
Marsilya and Nice shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.
This one beat our numbers. Marsilya carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Marsilya had 68% of the ball to Nice's 32%, shots finished 24-5, expected goals 2.32 to 1.46.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nice led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Marsilya and 1.50 for Nice.
What was the final score of Marsilya vs Nice?
Marsilya 1-1 Nice in the France - Ligue 1 on 26/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Marsilya vs Nice?
Before kick-off our model rated a Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Marsilya 58%, draw 22%, Nice 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Marsilya), Over 2.5 went the other way.