Marsilya 1-1 Nice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 26 Apr 2026

📅26/04/2026 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.72
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
20%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.83
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.01
6+ Goals
11%
9.66
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.83 — our 26% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.17
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.65
X/1
20%
4.33
X/2
8%
9.36
X/X
11%
5.47
2/1
9%
21.4
2/2
7%
7.08
2/X
6%
15.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Marsilya win — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
55%
+3.2pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.9pp
20%
Away Win
21%
-1.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.3pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marsilya EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Nice EU Bookmakers 24%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -7%
1.74/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.77
+11% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
407 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
20.3 Crosses 14.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marsilya
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Nice
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.68 xG 1.31
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
441 Passes 353
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.11.2025 Nice Nice 1-5 HT 0-2 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
26.01.2025 Nice Nice 2-0 HT 1-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
14.09.2024 Marsilya Marsilya 2-0 HT 1-0 Nice Nice FR1
24.04.2024 Marsilya Marsilya 2-2 HT 1-1 Nice Nice FR1
21.10.2023 Nice Nice 1-0 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
05.02.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 1-3 HT 0-2 Nice Nice FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marsilya
1-1
AWAY Nice
2.32 xG 1.46
68% Ball Possession 32%
24 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 1
573 Passes 220
88% Pass Accuracy 73%
37 Box Touches 16
30 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Marsilya vs Nice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marsilya and Nice shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

This one beat our numbers. Marsilya carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Marsilya had 68% of the ball to Nice's 32%, shots finished 24-5, expected goals 2.32 to 1.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nice led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Marsilya and 1.50 for Nice.

What was the final score of Marsilya vs Nice?

Marsilya 1-1 Nice in the France - Ligue 1 on 26/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marsilya vs Nice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Marsilya 58%, draw 22%, Nice 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Marsilya), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Marsilya) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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