Rennes 2-1 Nantes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 26 Apr 2026

📅26/04/2026 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.49
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
16%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.06
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
2.91
6+ Goals
11%
8.81
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.06 — our 28% vs market 18.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.81
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
5%
15.8
X/1
22%
4.0
X/2
7%
12.05
X/X
12%
6.27
2/1
10%
20.8
2/2
5%
9.62
2/X
5%
17.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Rennes win — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
63%
-1.5pp
22%
Draw
21%
+1.6pp
16%
Away Win
16%
-0.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.1pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rennes EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Nantes EU Bookmakers 20%
+0% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -4%
1.94/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.75
+8% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +2%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
436 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 78%
30.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
20.5 Crosses 13.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rennes
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Nantes
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.92 xG 1.03
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
435 Passes 284
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
20.09.2025 Nantes Nantes 2-2 HT 0-2 Rennes Rennes FR1
26.07.2025 Nantes Nantes 1-3 HT 1-2 Rennes Rennes HAZ
18.04.2025 Rennes Rennes 2-1 HT 1-0 Nantes Nantes FR1
08.12.2024 Nantes Nantes 1-0 HT 0-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
20.04.2024 Nantes Nantes 0-3 HT 0-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
01.10.2023 Rennes Rennes 3-1 HT 1-1 Nantes Nantes FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rennes
2-1
AWAY Nantes
1.30 xG 2.17
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 24
5 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 8
393 Passes 185
84% Pass Accuracy 71%
34 Box Touches 43
19 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rennes vs Nantes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rennes squeezed past Nantes 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Rennes as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Rennes had 63% of the ball to Nantes's 37%, shots finished 14-24, expected goals 1.30 to 2.17 — on chances, Nantes could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rennes had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Rennes and 1.00 for Nantes.

What was the final score of Rennes vs Nantes?

Rennes 2-1 Nantes in the France - Ligue 1 on 26/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rennes vs Nantes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rennes win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Rennes 61%, draw 22%, Nantes 16%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rennes), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rennes) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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