Estrela 1-2 Porto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 26 Apr 2026

📅26/04/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
12%
7.78
Draw
20%
4.62
Away
68%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.27
No
51%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.33
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.31
6+ Goals
9%
12.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
16.15
1/2
6%
24.8
1/X
6%
25.0
X/1
3%
17.25
X/2
26%
3.55
X/X
7%
6.46
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
36%
1.56
2/X
6%
21.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
12%
Home Win
10%
+2.1pp
20%
Draw
19%
+1.1pp
68%
Away Win
71%
-3.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
40%
+9.4pp
51%
BTTS No
60%
-9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto EU Bookmakers 75%
+6% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +7%
1.06/1.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.79/0.80
+46% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +16%
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
233 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 405 · 81%
13.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.8
12.6 Crosses 19.6
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela
1W-0D-4L
AWAY Porto
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
0.84 xG 1.41
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
212 Passes 432
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
12 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
15.12.2025 Porto Porto 3-1 HT 1-0 Estrela Estrela POR
26.04.2025 Estrela Estrela 2-0 HT 1-0 Porto Porto POR
16.12.2024 Porto Porto 2-0 HT 1-0 Estrela Estrela POR
17.02.2024 Porto Porto 2-0 HT 1-0 Estrela Estrela POR
15.09.2023 Estrela Estrela 0-1 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela
1-2
AWAY Porto
1.76 xG 1.81
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 6
273 Passes 326
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
11 Box Touches 34
12 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Estrela vs Porto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto squeezed past Estrela 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Estrela had 47% of the ball to Porto's 53%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.76 to 1.81.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Porto led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Estrela and 1.60 for Porto.

What was the final score of Estrela vs Porto?

Estrela 1-2 Porto in the Portugal - Premier League on 26/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela vs Porto?

Before kick-off our model rated an Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Estrela 12%, draw 20%, Porto 68%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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