Estoril 0-1 Famalicao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 26 Apr 2026

📅26/04/2026 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.5
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
47%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.21
Over 2.5
60%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.56
No
37%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.25
2-3 Goals
42%
1.85
4-5 Goals
27%
2.83
6+ Goals
11%
8.23
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
5.93
1/2
8%
20.95
1/X
5%
13.9
X/1
12%
8.42
X/2
13%
4.63
X/X
7%
5.57
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
34.0
2/2
26%
2.36
2/X
11%
12.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.0 — our 8% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
25%
+4.9pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.2pp
47%
Away Win
51%
-4.7pp
40%
Under 2.5
41%
-1.0pp
60%
Over 2.5
59%
+1.0pp
63%
BTTS Yes
60%
+3.4pp
37%
BTTS No
40%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estoril EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Famalicao EU Bookmakers 56%
+9% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -4%
1.56/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.01
+40% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +46%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
330 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 81%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.1
18.8 Crosses 22.6
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estoril
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Famalicao
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.94 xG 1.90
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
305 Passes 329
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.12.2025 Famalicao Famalicao 4-0 HT 2-0 Estoril Estoril POR
22.11.2025 Estoril Estoril 1-2 HT 0-1 Famalicao Famalicao POK
12.04.2025 Famalicao Famalicao 3-0 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril POR
01.12.2024 Estoril Estoril 2-1 HT 2-1 Famalicao Famalicao POR
28.04.2024 Estoril Estoril 1-0 HT 1-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
17.12.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 1-1 HT 1-1 Estoril Estoril POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estoril
0-1
AWAY Famalicao
0.44 xG 1.15
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 4
371 Passes 290
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Estoril vs Famalicao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Famalicao nicked a narrow win over Estoril 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Famalicao as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Estoril had 54% of the ball to Famalicao's 46%, shots finished 9-6, expected goals 0.44 to 1.15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Famalicao led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Estoril and 1.83 for Famalicao.

What was the final score of Estoril vs Famalicao?

Estoril 0-1 Famalicao in the Portugal - Premier League on 26/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estoril vs Famalicao?

Before kick-off our model rated an Famalicao win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Estoril 30%, draw 24%, Famalicao 47%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Famalicao) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Famalicao) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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