Portland Timbers vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Portland Timbers v Sporting Kansas City — Team-Based Signals
Portland Timbers vs Sporting Kansas City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Portland Timbers 2-1 Sporting Kansas City — Actual Match Statistics
Portland Timbers edged past Sporting Kansas City 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 34% — and on the day Portland Timbers made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (57%) came in.
On the day, Portland Timbers had 43% of the ball to Sporting Kansas City's 57%, shots finished 11-6, expected goals 2.08 to 0.25 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Portland Timbers's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Portland Timbers and 2.33 for Sporting Kansas City.
What was the final score of Portland Timbers vs Sporting Kansas City?
Portland Timbers 2-1 Sporting Kansas City in the USA - Major League on 26/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Portland Timbers vs Sporting Kansas City?
Before kick-off our model rated a Portland Timbers win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Portland Timbers 40%, draw 26%, Sporting Kansas City 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Portland Timbers), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.