Gimcheon Sangmu 3-1 Jeju United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Classic, 26 Jul 2025

📅26/07/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.0
Over 2.5
45%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.63
No
54%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.82
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
21%
3.34
6+ Goals
9%
11.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.82 — our 30% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.93
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
9%
13.0
X/1
21%
5.03
X/2
13%
7.03
X/X
12%
5.1
2/1
9%
23.75
2/2
9%
4.9
2/X
6%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
-0.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-0.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
46%
+9.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
54%
-9.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
57%
-11.2pp
54%
BTTS No
43%
+11.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gimcheon Sangmu EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Jeju United EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -7%
1.28/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.78
-12% / +60% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -29%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
344 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 78%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.7 Crosses 19.4
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gimcheon Sangmu
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Jeju United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.55 xG 2.43
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
349 Passes 299
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
14 Box Touches 33
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.05.2025 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu 1-1 HT 0-0 Jeju United Jeju United GKOR
22.02.2025 Jeju United Jeju United 2-3 HT 1-0 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu GKOR
01.09.2024 Jeju United Jeju United 1-0 HT 0-0 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu GKOR
18.05.2024 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu 1-0 HT 0-0 Jeju United Jeju United GKOK
13.04.2024 Jeju United Jeju United 0-2 HT 0-2 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu GKOK
10.09.2022 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu 1-2 HT 1-1 Jeju United Jeju United GKOK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gimcheon Sangmu
3-1
AWAY Jeju United
52% Ball Possession 48%
21 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 3
374 Passes 349
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gimcheon Sangmu vs Jeju United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gimcheon Sangmu beat Jeju United 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Gimcheon Sangmu as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gimcheon Sangmu had 52% of the ball to Jeju United's 48%, shots finished 21-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gimcheon Sangmu had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Gimcheon Sangmu and 1.00 for Jeju United.

What was the final score of Gimcheon Sangmu vs Jeju United?

Gimcheon Sangmu 3-1 Jeju United in the South Kore - K League Classic on 26/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gimcheon Sangmu vs Jeju United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gimcheon Sangmu win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Gimcheon Sangmu 45%, draw 27%, Jeju United 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gimcheon Sangmu) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gimcheon Sangmu) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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26 Jul 2025
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