ThespaKusatsu Gunma 2-3 Kagoshima United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 26 Jul 2025

📅26/07/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.99
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
45%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
16%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
30%
+0.3pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.8pp
45%
Away Win
43%
+1.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.5pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ThespaKusatsu Gunma EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Kagoshima United EU Bookmakers 48%
-25% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -13%
0.25/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.20
-80% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +0%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
326 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
25.2 Crosses 18.4
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ThespaKusatsu Gunma
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Kagoshima United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
458 Passes 162
85% Pass Accuracy 68%
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
08.03.2025 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United 5-2 HT 2-1 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP3
13.07.2024 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United 1-1 HT 0-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
25.02.2024 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-1 HT 0-0 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ThespaKusatsu Gunma
2-3
AWAY Kagoshima United
61% Ball Possession 39%
20 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 9
8 Corners 8
482 Passes 287
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs Kagoshima United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kagoshima United nicked a narrow win over ThespaKusatsu Gunma 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Kagoshima United as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, ThespaKusatsu Gunma had 61% of the ball to Kagoshima United's 39%, shots finished 20-19.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Kagoshima United led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for ThespaKusatsu Gunma and 2.33 for Kagoshima United.

What was the final score of ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs Kagoshima United?

ThespaKusatsu Gunma 2-3 Kagoshima United in the Japan - J3 League on 26/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs Kagoshima United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kagoshima United win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split ThespaKusatsu Gunma 30%, draw 25%, Kagoshima United 45%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kagoshima United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kagoshima United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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