Puebla 1-0 Santos Laguna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 26 Jul 2025

📅26/07/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-4.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.2pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puebla EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos Laguna EU Bookmakers 29%
+5% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -22%
1.27/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.74
-3% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -17%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
312 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 77%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
20.8 Crosses 15.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puebla
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Santos Laguna
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.46 xG 1.99
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 3
326 Passes 317
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 22
26 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.02.2025 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 0-2 HT 0-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
06.07.2024 Puebla Puebla 1-0 HT 0-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
31.01.2024 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 3-0 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
08.07.2023 Puebla Puebla 2-3 HT 2-2 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
27.02.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 3-2 HT 2-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
09.07.2022 Puebla Puebla 1-0 HT 1-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puebla
1-0
AWAY Santos Laguna
3.09 xG 0.27
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 2
322 Passes 202
77% Pass Accuracy 67%
36 Box Touches 8
21 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Puebla vs Santos Laguna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Puebla nicked a narrow win over Santos Laguna 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Puebla as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Puebla had 59% of the ball to Santos Laguna's 41%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 3.09 to 0.27 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Puebla's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Puebla and 1.50 for Santos Laguna.

What was the final score of Puebla vs Santos Laguna?

Puebla 1-0 Santos Laguna in the Mexico - Primera on 26/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puebla vs Santos Laguna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Puebla win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Puebla 44%, draw 27%, Santos Laguna 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Puebla), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Puebla) ✓ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
26 Jul 2025
04:00 Queretaro vs Pumas UNAM Analysis →
06:00 Tijuana vs FC Juarez Analysis →