Tijuana 1-1 FC Juarez — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 26 Jul 2025

Tijuana
1-1 HT 0-0
FC Juarez
📅26/07/2025 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2025/2026

Tijuana vs FC Juarez Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.03
Over 2.5
45%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.63
No
53%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.7
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.07
6+ Goals
10%
10.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 28% vs market 20.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
10%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-1.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.6pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
45%
+9.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
55%
-9.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.8pp
53%
BTTS No
43%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tijuana v FC Juarez — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tijuana EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +2%
1.74/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.58
+18% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -23%
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
307 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 78%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
21.3 Crosses 18.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0

Tijuana vs FC Juarez Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tijuana
2W-1D-3L
AWAY FC Juarez
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.48 xG 1.10
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
334 Passes 340
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.02.2025 Tijuana Tijuana 1-2 HT 1-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
07.11.2024 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-1 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
15.04.2024 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-1 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
30.09.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 5-1 HT 1-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
15.01.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 3-0 HT 2-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
09.07.2022 Tijuana Tijuana 0-2 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK

Tijuana 1-1 FC Juarez — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tijuana
1-1
AWAY FC Juarez
1.35 xG 0.65
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
259 Passes 499
85% Pass Accuracy 89%
15 Box Touches 8
21 Crosses 21
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Tijuana vs FC Juarez
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tijuana and FC Juarez couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Tijuana at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Tijuana had 36% of the ball to FC Juarez's 64%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.35 to 0.65.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Juarez led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Tijuana and 1.50 for FC Juarez.

What was the final score of Tijuana vs FC Juarez?

Tijuana 1-1 FC Juarez in the Mexico - Primera on 26/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tijuana vs FC Juarez?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tijuana win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Tijuana 45%, draw 27%, FC Juarez 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Tijuana), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tijuana) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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