Santos 1-0 Chapecoense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 26 Jul 2026

Santos
1-0 HT 1-0
Chapecoense
📅26/07/2026 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Brazil - Serie A – 2026

Santos vs Chapecoense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.37
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
12%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
4.09
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
2.89
6+ Goals
12%
8.72
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.09 — our 26% vs market 18.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.61
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
8%
18.35
X/1
18%
3.81
X/2
4%
15.5
X/X
7%
6.82
2/1
10%
21.8
2/2
5%
13.15
2/X
6%
21.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
69%
-2.2pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.0pp
12%
Away Win
12%
+0.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.1pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Santos v Chapecoense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santos EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 15%
-4% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -7%
1.69/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.96
+0% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
414 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 80%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.2
21.3 Crosses 15.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.5

Santos vs Chapecoense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santos
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Chapecoense
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.49 xG 1.04
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
403 Passes 279
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
29.01.2026 Chapecoense Chapecoense 4-2 HT 1-1 Santos Santos BR1
17.10.2024 Chapecoense Chapecoense 3-2 HT 1-1 Santos Santos BR2
02.07.2024 Santos Santos 1-0 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
18.11.2021 Santos Santos 2-0 HT 1-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1
02.08.2021 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-1 HT 0-1 Santos Santos BR1
02.12.2019 Santos Santos 2-0 HT 1-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1

Santos 1-0 Chapecoense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santos
1-0
AWAY Chapecoense
0.43 xG 0.24
8 Total Shots 2
3 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 0
371 Passes 127
23 Box Touches 1
13 Crosses 4
POST-MATCH Santos vs Chapecoense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santos squeezed past Chapecoense 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Santos as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, shots finished 8-2, expected goals 0.43 to 0.24.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santos had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Santos and 1.17 for Chapecoense.

What was the final score of Santos vs Chapecoense?

Santos 1-0 Chapecoense in the Brazil - Serie A on 26/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santos vs Chapecoense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santos win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Santos 66%, draw 21%, Chapecoense 12%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santos) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Santos) ✗ Over 2.5
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