Chapecoense 4-2 Santos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 29 Jan 2026

📅29/01/2026 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.57
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
36%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.62
Over 2.5
48%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.95
No
46%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.5
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
4.55
6+ Goals
10%
24.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
4.27
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
32.5
1/X
6%
14.2
X/1
13%
5.71
X/2
11%
5.33
X/X
11%
4.03
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
19%
3.84
2/X
8%
14.05
Value flag · 1/2 at 32.5 — our 6% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
35%
+3.6pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.6pp
36%
Away Win
36%
+0.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
58%
-6.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
42%
+6.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
47%
+6.7pp
46%
BTTS No
53%
-6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos EU Bookmakers 40%
-1% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -21%
1.33/1.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.46
-12% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -16%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
309 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 79%
16.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
25.2 Crosses 19.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chapecoense
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Santos
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.83 xG 1.58
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
299 Passes 374
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
17.10.2024 Chapecoense Chapecoense 3-2 HT 1-1 Santos Santos BR2
02.07.2024 Santos Santos 1-0 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
18.11.2021 Santos Santos 2-0 HT 1-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1
02.08.2021 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-1 HT 0-1 Santos Santos BR1
02.12.2019 Santos Santos 2-0 HT 1-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1
01.09.2019 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-1 HT 0-1 Santos Santos BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chapecoense
4-2
AWAY Santos
1.83 xG 1.32
34% Ball Possession 66%
8 Total Shots 25
4 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 14
209 Passes 481
73% Pass Accuracy 89%
12 Box Touches 25
6 Crosses 39
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Chapecoense vs Santos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chapecoense got the better of Santos 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 25% / 36% — and on the day Chapecoense made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Chapecoense had 34% of the ball to Santos's 66%, shots finished 8-25, expected goals 1.83 to 1.32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santos led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Chapecoense and 1.50 for Santos.

What was the final score of Chapecoense vs Santos?

Chapecoense 4-2 Santos in the Brazil - Serie A on 29/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chapecoense vs Santos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chapecoense win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Chapecoense 39%, draw 25%, Santos 36%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chapecoense), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chapecoense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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