26/08/2024
·
17:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
0-1
AFC Hornchurch vs Welling United Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34
— our 35% vs market 24.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 60% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH
Under 2.5
BTTS No
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
42%
28%
Draw
27%
36%
Away Win
31%
60%
Under 2.5
50%
40%
Over 2.5
50%
47%
BTTS Yes
55%
53%
BTTS No
45%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
AFC Hornchurch v Welling United — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
AFC Hornchurch
EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY
Welling United
EU Bookmakers 34%
+44% /
+44%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+6% /
+5%
1.00/0.00
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
1.15/1.28
-29%
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-7%
/
+9%
52%
Ball Possession
48%
13
Total Shots
10
5
Shots on Target
4
6
Corners
5
349 · 80%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
323 · 78%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
0.0
Yellow Cards
2.3
POST-MATCH
AFC Hornchurch vs Welling United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
AFC Hornchurch and Welling United fought out a 0-0 stalemate. Neither side could find a way through.
Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.
What was the final score of AFC Hornchurch vs Welling United?
AFC Hornchurch 0-0 Welling United in the England - Conference on 26/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for AFC Hornchurch vs Welling United?
Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Hornchurch win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split AFC Hornchurch 36%, draw 28%, Welling United 36%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.
◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36)
✓ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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İCON
More England - Conference
26 Aug 2024