Chorley 4-1 Southport — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 26 Aug 2024

📅26/08/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.91
Over 2.5
45%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.75
No
57%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.4
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
3.49
6+ Goals
8%
13.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 33% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
51%
-3.4pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.3pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
53%
-10.5pp
57%
BTTS No
47%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chorley EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Southport EU Bookmakers 28%
+4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +9%
2.13/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.70
+29% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -12%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
358 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chorley
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Southport
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.02.2024 Chorley Chorley 3-0 HT 0-0 Southport Southport İCON
28.08.2023 Southport Southport 0-2 HT 0-1 Chorley Chorley İCON
04.02.2023 Chorley Chorley 1-2 HT 1-0 Southport Southport İCON
05.11.2022 Southport Southport 2-1 HT 0-1 Chorley Chorley İCON
12.03.2022 Chorley Chorley 2-1 HT 0-1 Southport Southport İCON
02.11.2021 Southport Southport 0-0 HT 0-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chorley
4-1
AWAY Southport
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Chorley vs Southport
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chorley swept aside Southport 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Chorley as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chorley had 49% of the ball to Southport's 51%, shots finished 16-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chorley had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Chorley and 0.83 for Southport.

What was the final score of Chorley vs Southport?

Chorley 4-1 Southport in the England - Conference on 26/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chorley vs Southport?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chorley win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Chorley 48%, draw 26%, Southport 26%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chorley) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chorley) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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