Dundalk 3-2 Univ College Dublin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 26 Sep 2025

📅26/09/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.57
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
20%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.88
No
47%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.17
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
23%
3.35
6+ Goals
11%
12.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
59%
-6.9pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.4pp
20%
Away Win
17%
+2.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.7pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dundalk EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Univ College Dublin EU Bookmakers 21%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +6%
1.91/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.13
-2% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +62%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
322 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 184 · 60%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dundalk
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Univ College Dublin
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.71 xG 0.52
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
307 Passes 151
71% Pass Accuracy 54%
22 Box Touches 6
27 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.08.2025 Univ College Dublin Univ College Dublin 0-1 HT 0-1 Dundalk Dundalk İR1
13.06.2025 Dundalk Dundalk 1-1 HT 1-1 Univ College Dublin Univ College Dublin İR1
04.04.2025 Univ College Dublin Univ College Dublin 0-1 HT 0-0 Dundalk Dundalk İR1
03.11.2023 Univ College Dublin Univ College Dublin 1-5 HT 1-1 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
01.05.2023 Univ College Dublin Univ College Dublin 0-2 HT 0-1 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
17.02.2023 Dundalk Dundalk 1-1 HT 1-0 Univ College Dublin Univ College Dublin İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dundalk
3-2
AWAY Univ College Dublin
43% Ball Possession 57%
19 Total Shots 7
11 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Dundalk vs Univ College Dublin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dundalk nicked a narrow win over Univ College Dublin 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Dundalk as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Dundalk had 43% of the ball to Univ College Dublin's 57%, shots finished 19-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dundalk had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Dundalk and 0.50 for Univ College Dublin.

What was the final score of Dundalk vs Univ College Dublin?

Dundalk 3-2 Univ College Dublin in the Ireland - 1st Division on 26/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dundalk vs Univ College Dublin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dundalk win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Dundalk 52%, draw 28%, Univ College Dublin 20%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dundalk), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dundalk) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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