Kerry 1-1 Treaty United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 26 Sep 2025

📅26/09/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.47
Draw
31%
3.04
Away
37%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.59
Over 2.5
36%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.96
No
57%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
41%
2.33
2-3 Goals
37%
1.72
4-5 Goals
16%
4.57
6+ Goals
6%
26.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.33 — our 41% vs market 34.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
18%
X/X
20%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
37%
-4.4pp
31%
Draw
30%
+1.4pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+3.0pp
64%
Under 2.5
59%
+5.5pp
36%
Over 2.5
41%
-5.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.5pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kerry EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Treaty United EU Bookmakers 37%
+15% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / -5%
1.42/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/0.93
+5% / +71% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +43%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
327 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kerry
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Treaty United
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
55% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 2
04.08.2025 Treaty United Treaty United 1-1 HT 0-0 Kerry İR1
09.05.2025 Kerry 1-0 HT 1-0 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
04.04.2025 Treaty United Treaty United 3-0 HT 1-0 Kerry İR1
06.09.2024 Treaty United Treaty United 1-1 HT 0-0 Kerry İR1
03.06.2024 Kerry 2-1 HT 1-0 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
12.04.2024 Treaty United Treaty United 0-0 HT 0-0 Kerry İR1
POST-MATCH Kerry vs Treaty United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kerry and Treaty United shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (32% / 31% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (64%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kerry had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Kerry and 1.00 for Treaty United.

What was the final score of Kerry vs Treaty United?

Kerry 1-1 Treaty United in the Ireland - 1st Division on 26/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kerry vs Treaty United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Treaty United win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Kerry 32%, draw 31%, Treaty United 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Treaty United), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Treaty United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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