Kerry 1-0 Treaty United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 9 May 2025

📅09/05/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.47
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
38%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.0
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
3.59
6+ Goals
10%
14.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.0 — our 32% vs market 26.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
+0.4pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.7pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+2.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.8pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kerry EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Treaty United EU Bookmakers 40%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +4%
1.66/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/0.83
+28% / +72% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +61%
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
262 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kerry
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Treaty United
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.04.2025 Treaty United Treaty United 3-0 HT 1-0 Kerry İR1
06.09.2024 Treaty United Treaty United 1-1 HT 0-0 Kerry İR1
03.06.2024 Kerry 2-1 HT 1-0 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
12.04.2024 Treaty United Treaty United 0-0 HT 0-0 Kerry İR1
01.03.2024 Kerry 0-1 HT 0-0 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
25.08.2023 Treaty United Treaty United 3-1 HT 1-1 Kerry İR1
POST-MATCH Kerry vs Treaty United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kerry edged past Treaty United 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 24% / 38% — and on the day Kerry made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Treaty United led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Kerry and 1.50 for Treaty United.

What was the final score of Kerry vs Treaty United?

Kerry 1-0 Treaty United in the Ireland - 1st Division on 09/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kerry vs Treaty United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Treaty United win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Kerry 37%, draw 24%, Treaty United 38%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Treaty United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Treaty United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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