Treaty United 1-1 Kerry — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 4 Aug 2025

📅04/08/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.82
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
50%
-3.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.8pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+4.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+2.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-2.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.5pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Treaty United EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Kerry EU Bookmakers 29%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -19%
2.14/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/2.13
+37% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -34%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
318 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Treaty United
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Kerry
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
44% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 4
09.05.2025 Kerry 1-0 HT 1-0 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
04.04.2025 Treaty United Treaty United 3-0 HT 1-0 Kerry İR1
06.09.2024 Treaty United Treaty United 1-1 HT 0-0 Kerry İR1
03.06.2024 Kerry 2-1 HT 1-0 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
12.04.2024 Treaty United Treaty United 0-0 HT 0-0 Kerry İR1
01.03.2024 Kerry 0-1 HT 0-0 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
POST-MATCH Treaty United vs Kerry
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Treaty United and Kerry shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Treaty United at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Treaty United and 0.67 for Kerry.

What was the final score of Treaty United vs Kerry?

Treaty United 1-1 Kerry in the Ireland - 1st Division on 04/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Treaty United vs Kerry?

Before kick-off our model rated a Treaty United win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Treaty United 47%, draw 24%, Kerry 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Treaty United), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Treaty United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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