VPS 1-0 Haka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 26 Sep 2025

VPS
1-0 HT 1-0
Haka
📅26/09/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
37%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.15
Over 2.5
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.55
No
43%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.22
2-3 Goals
43%
1.89
4-5 Goals
21%
3.05
6+ Goals
11%
9.46
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.07
1/2 EV+ ✗
13%
28.0
1/X
6%
12.6
X/1
11%
5.29
X/2
13%
6.55
X/X
7%
5.3
2/1
6%
23.4
2/2
12%
4.27
2/X
11%
12.95
Value flag · 1/2 at 28.0 — our 13% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
43%
-5.1pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.5pp
38%
Away Win
32%
+5.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.2pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VPS EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Haka EU Bookmakers 36%
-2% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -2%
1.35/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.50
+6% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
350 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 77%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
25.0 Crosses 19.7
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME VPS
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Haka
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.62 xG 1.30
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
324 Passes 281
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
02.07.2025 VPS VPS 1-2 HT 1-2 Haka Haka FİN
31.05.2025 Haka Haka 2-1 HT 1-0 VPS VPS FİN
19.10.2024 Haka Haka 2-3 HT 1-1 VPS VPS FİN
18.08.2024 VPS VPS 3-2 HT 0-0 Haka Haka FİN
06.04.2024 Haka Haka 1-2 HT 0-2 VPS VPS FİN
24.02.2024 VPS VPS 0-1 HT 0-0 Haka Haka FLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME VPS
1-0
AWAY Haka
0.61 xG 1.72
59% Ball Possession 41%
7 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
350 Passes 216
77% Pass Accuracy 71%
22 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH VPS vs Haka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

VPS nicked a narrow win over Haka 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 25% / 38%) promised a tight game; VPS found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, VPS had 59% of the ball to Haka's 41%, shots finished 7-16, expected goals 0.61 to 1.72 — on chances, Haka could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for VPS and 1.67 for Haka.

What was the final score of VPS vs Haka?

VPS 1-0 Haka in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 26/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VPS vs Haka?

Before kick-off our model rated a VPS win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split VPS 38%, draw 25%, Haka 38%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/25/38) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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