Krylya Sovetov 2-3 Dinamo Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 26 Sep 2025

📅26/09/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.69
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
55%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.95
Over 2.5
54%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.58
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.41
6+ Goals
8%
12.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
6.4
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
23.0
1/X
7%
14.75
X/1
9%
8.37
X/2
17%
4.42
X/X
9%
5.07
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
32%
2.4
2/X
5%
13.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.0 — our 7% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
24%
-0.9pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.8pp
55%
Away Win
52%
+3.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.8pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Krylya Sovetov EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 56%
-9% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -6%
1.33/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.90/1.13
-1% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -20%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
261 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 79%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.2
15.4 Crosses 17.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Krylya Sovetov
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Dinamo Moscow
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.17
0.57 xG 1.49
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 4
391 Passes 309
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
27.08.2025 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 0-0 HT 0-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUK
05.05.2025 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 1-3 HT 1-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
24.10.2024 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 3-6 HT 2-3 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUK
28.08.2024 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 5-1 HT 3-1 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUK
17.08.2024 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 1-0 HT 0-0 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS
18.05.2024 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 4-1 HT 1-1 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Krylya Sovetov
2-3
AWAY Dinamo Moscow
1.31 xG 2.96
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 9
318 Passes 322
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 40
9 Crosses 30
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Krylya Sovetov vs Dinamo Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Moscow squeezed past Krylya Sovetov 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Dinamo Moscow as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Krylya Sovetov had 49% of the ball to Dinamo Moscow's 51%, shots finished 9-20, expected goals 1.31 to 2.96 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Dinamo Moscow's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Moscow led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Krylya Sovetov and 3.17 for Dinamo Moscow.

What was the final score of Krylya Sovetov vs Dinamo Moscow?

Krylya Sovetov 2-3 Dinamo Moscow in the Russia - Premier League on 26/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Krylya Sovetov vs Dinamo Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dinamo Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Krylya Sovetov 23%, draw 22%, Dinamo Moscow 55%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Moscow), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Moscow) ✓ Over 2.5
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