Dinamo Moscow 5-1 Krylya Sovetov — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Cup, 28 Aug 2024

📅28/08/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
23%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.23
Over 2.5
48%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.64
2-3 Goals
40%
1.91
4-5 Goals
23%
2.86
6+ Goals
9%
8.08
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.64 — our 28% vs market 16.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
12%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
54%
-4.1pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.2pp
23%
Away Win
22%
+0.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.8pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Krylya Sovetov EU Bookmakers 25%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
1.77/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.50/1.60
-4% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / +15%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
374 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Moscow
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Krylya Sovetov
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.21 xG 0.61
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
347 Passes 334
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.08.2024 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 1-0 HT 0-0 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS
18.05.2024 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 4-1 HT 1-1 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS
19.02.2024 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 1-1 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov HAZ
29.07.2023 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 3-3 HT 1-3 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
05.03.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 1-0 HT 0-0 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS
01.03.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 1-1 HT 0-1 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Moscow
5-1
AWAY Krylya Sovetov
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Dinamo Moscow vs Krylya Sovetov
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Moscow ran out comfortable winners over Krylya Sovetov 5-1. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Dinamo Moscow as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Dinamo Moscow had 54% of the ball to Krylya Sovetov's 46%, shots finished 14-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Moscow had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Dinamo Moscow and 1.00 for Krylya Sovetov.

What was the final score of Dinamo Moscow vs Krylya Sovetov?

Dinamo Moscow 5-1 Krylya Sovetov in the Russia - Cup on 28/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Moscow vs Krylya Sovetov?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Moscow 50%, draw 27%, Krylya Sovetov 23%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Moscow) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Moscow) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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