Barnet 2-1 Rochdale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.15
Over 2.5
54%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.18
2-3 Goals
42%
1.86
4-5 Goals
22%
3.03
6+ Goals
10%
9.48
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.14
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.25
X/1
17%
4.12
X/2
7%
9.69
X/X
8%
5.59
2/1
10%
21.85
2/2
11%
7.01
2/X
8%
14.85
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 9% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
56%
-7.5pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.7pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+6.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
43%
+3.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
57%
-3.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.5pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barnet EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Rochdale EU Bookmakers 24%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
1.67/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.76
-5% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / -12%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
355 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barnet
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Rochdale
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
05.03.2024 Barnet Barnet 2-0 HT 1-0 Rochdale Rochdale İBSL
16.09.2023 Rochdale Rochdale 4-2 HT 2-1 Barnet Barnet İBSL
23.02.2013 Barnet Barnet 0-0 HT 0-0 Rochdale Rochdale İN2
01.09.2012 Rochdale Rochdale 2-0 HT 2-0 Barnet Barnet İN2
08.05.2010 Barnet Barnet 1-0 HT 0-0 Rochdale Rochdale İN2
10.10.2009 Rochdale Rochdale 2-1 HT 2-0 Barnet Barnet İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barnet
2-1
AWAY Rochdale
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
2 Passes 0
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Barnet vs Rochdale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barnet squeezed past Rochdale 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Barnet as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Barnet had 60% of the ball to Rochdale's 40%, shots finished 13-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rochdale led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Barnet and 1.33 for Rochdale.

What was the final score of Barnet vs Rochdale?

Barnet 2-1 Rochdale in the England - National League on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barnet vs Rochdale?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barnet win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Barnet 48%, draw 24%, Rochdale 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barnet), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Barnet) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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