Weston-super-Mare 4-1 Aveley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.66
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.73
No
54%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.85
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.19
6+ Goals
10%
10.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.85 — our 27% vs market 20.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-5.7pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.1pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+5.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.4pp
54%
BTTS No
46%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Weston-super-Mare EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Aveley EU Bookmakers 24%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.89/1.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.95
+7% / -43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -17%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
379 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Weston-super-Mare
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Aveley
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
62% Ball Possession 38%
11 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 2
04.11.2023 Aveley Aveley 2-0 HT 1-0 Weston-super-Mare Weston-super-Mare İCON
POST-MATCH Weston-super-Mare vs Aveley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Weston-super-Mare cruised past Aveley 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Weston-super-Mare as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

What was the final score of Weston-super-Mare vs Aveley?

Weston-super-Mare 4-1 Aveley in the England - Conference on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Weston-super-Mare vs Aveley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Weston-super-Mare win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Weston-super-Mare 50%, draw 23%, Aveley 27%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Weston-super-Mare) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Weston-super-Mare) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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