Notts County 1-0 Harrogate Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
24%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.15
Over 2.5
49%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
4.18
2-3 Goals
38%
1.86
4-5 Goals
22%
3.03
6+ Goals
12%
9.43
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.18 — our 28% vs market 18.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.92
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.8
X/1
17%
3.84
X/2
7%
11.35
X/X
13%
5.99
2/1
10%
21.45
2/2
10%
8.54
2/X
6%
16.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
61%
-9.5pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.5pp
24%
Away Win
17%
+7.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
43%
+8.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
57%
-8.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.1pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Notts County EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Harrogate Town EU Bookmakers 21%
+4% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +11%
2.03/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.54
+58% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +7%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
390 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 66%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
18.6 Crosses 12.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Notts County
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Harrogate Town
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
1.50 xG 2.19
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 6
486 Passes 246
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2024 Notts County Notts County 3-0 HT 1-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
16.12.2023 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 3-1 HT 2-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
22.09.2020 Notts County Notts County 0-1 HT 0-1 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town FAK
02.08.2020 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 3-1 HT 2-0 Notts County Notts County İBSL
13.08.2019 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Notts County Notts County İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Notts County
1-0
AWAY Harrogate Town
1.36 xG 0.19
69% Ball Possession 31%
24 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
539 Passes 206
90% Pass Accuracy 78%
37 Box Touches 10
36 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Notts County vs Harrogate Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Notts County nicked a narrow win over Harrogate Town 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Notts County as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Notts County had 69% of the ball to Harrogate Town's 31%, shots finished 24-4, expected goals 1.36 to 0.19.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Harrogate Town led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Notts County and 1.40 for Harrogate Town.

What was the final score of Notts County vs Harrogate Town?

Notts County 1-0 Harrogate Town in the England - 2nd Division on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Notts County vs Harrogate Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Notts County win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Notts County 51%, draw 24%, Harrogate Town 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Notts County), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Notts County) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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