Cesena 2-0 Brescia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
29%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.95
Over 2.5
55%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.73
No
45%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.58
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.36
6+ Goals
12%
12.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.36 — our 25% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.34
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.75
X/1
13%
4.19
X/2
15%
8.75
X/X
11%
4.98
2/1
8%
23.6
2/2
8%
6.55
2/X
5%
14.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
52%
-6.8pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.2pp
29%
Away Win
23%
+5.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
48%
-2.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
52%
+2.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.4pp
45%
BTTS No
46%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cesena EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Brescia EU Bookmakers 26%
+3% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +11%
1.74/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.34
+17% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
324 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 76%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
13.0 Crosses 19.2
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cesena
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Brescia
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 3
21.04.2018 Brescia Brescia 0-0 HT 0-0 Cesena Cesena İTB
27.11.2017 Cesena Cesena 1-0 HT 1-0 Brescia Brescia İTB
04.04.2017 Cesena Cesena 1-1 HT 1-1 Brescia Brescia İTB
04.11.2016 Brescia Brescia 3-2 HT 2-0 Cesena Cesena İTB
17.01.2016 Brescia Brescia 2-1 HT 0-1 Cesena Cesena İTB
05.09.2015 Cesena Cesena 2-0 HT 2-0 Brescia Brescia İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cesena
2-0
AWAY Brescia
2.68 xG 0.92
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 7
272 Passes 354
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 26
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cesena vs Brescia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cesena beat Brescia 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cesena as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cesena had 45% of the ball to Brescia's 55%, shots finished 15-17, expected goals 2.68 to 0.92.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Cesena and 1.00 for Brescia.

What was the final score of Cesena vs Brescia?

Cesena 2-0 Brescia in the Italy - Serie B on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cesena vs Brescia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cesena win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Cesena 45%, draw 26%, Brescia 29%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cesena) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cesena) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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