Hearts 3-1 Celtic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 26 Oct 2025

📅26/10/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
2.84
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
51%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.03
Over 2.5
46%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.61
No
52%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.95
2-3 Goals
42%
1.88
4-5 Goals
19%
3.21
6+ Goals
9%
10.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.95 — our 30% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
4.61
1/2
7%
23.55
1/X
6%
13.4
X/1
12%
6.78
X/2 EV+ ✗
24%
5.1
X/X
10%
5.18
2/1
6%
30.0
2/2
20%
2.98
2/X
7%
12.9
Value flag · X/2 at 5.1 — our 24% vs market 15.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
31%
-5.1pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.5pp
51%
Away Win
43%
+7.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
45%
+8.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
55%
-8.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.8pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hearts EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Celtic EU Bookmakers 48%
-5% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -15%
1.00/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.61
-9% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +42% / -35%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
265 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 79%
31.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.2
22.7 Crosses 17.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hearts
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Celtic
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.82 xG 2.61
34% Ball Possession 66%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 10
240 Passes 570
71% Pass Accuracy 87%
14 Box Touches 34
14 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 1
29.03.2025 Celtic Celtic 3-0 HT 3-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
23.11.2024 Hearts Hearts 1-4 HT 0-0 Celtic Celtic İKP
14.09.2024 Celtic Celtic 2-0 HT 0-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
04.05.2024 Celtic Celtic 3-0 HT 2-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
03.03.2024 Hearts Hearts 2-0 HT 1-0 Celtic Celtic İKP
16.12.2023 Celtic Celtic 0-2 HT 0-2 Hearts Hearts İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hearts
3-1
AWAY Celtic
1.57 xG 0.88
35% Ball Possession 65%
12 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 9
182 Passes 434
65% Pass Accuracy 82%
36 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hearts vs Celtic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hearts saw off Celtic 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Celtic at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Hearts had 35% of the ball to Celtic's 65%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 1.57 to 0.88.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celtic led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Hearts and 2.00 for Celtic.

What was the final score of Hearts vs Celtic?

Hearts 3-1 Celtic in the Scotland - Premiership on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hearts vs Celtic?

Before kick-off our model rated an Celtic win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Hearts 26%, draw 23%, Celtic 51%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Celtic) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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