Almeria 1-0 CD Castellon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 26 Oct 2025

📅26/10/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.92
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.23
Over 2.5
57%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.53
No
39%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.53
2-3 Goals
39%
1.89
4-5 Goals
25%
2.78
6+ Goals
13%
7.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.61
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
7%
12.5
X/1
16%
5.0
X/2
16%
7.77
X/X
8%
5.62
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.35
2/2
8%
5.17
2/X
7%
13.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.35 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
48%
+0.7pp
21%
Draw
25%
-3.6pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.9pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.6pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.6pp
61%
BTTS Yes
61%
-0.6pp
39%
BTTS No
39%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almeria EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Castellon EU Bookmakers 31%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -12%
1.65/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.78
+13% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -19%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
276 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 77%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.3
19.2 Crosses 15.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almeria
3W-1D-2L
AWAY CD Castellon
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.39 xG 1.23
55% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
375 Passes 280
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.04.2025 CD Castellon CD Castellon 4-1 HT 1-1 Almeria Almeria İS2
16.09.2024 Almeria Almeria 2-5 HT 0-1 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
30.01.2021 Almeria Almeria 3-1 HT 1-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
28.10.2020 CD Castellon CD Castellon 1-2 HT 0-1 Almeria Almeria İS2
24.02.2007 Almeria Almeria 2-1 HT 0-1 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
24.09.2006 CD Castellon CD Castellon 1-1 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almeria
1-0
AWAY CD Castellon
0.95 xG 0.68
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
314 Passes 339
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Almeria vs CD Castellon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almeria nicked a narrow win over CD Castellon 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Almeria as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Almeria had 48% of the ball to CD Castellon's 52%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 0.95 to 0.68.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Almeria had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Almeria and 2.17 for CD Castellon.

What was the final score of Almeria vs CD Castellon?

Almeria 1-0 CD Castellon in the Spain - 2nd Division on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almeria vs CD Castellon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almeria win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Almeria 49%, draw 21%, CD Castellon 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Almeria) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Almeria) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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