Sporting Gijon 1-0 Real Zaragoza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 26 Oct 2025

📅26/10/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
19%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.75
Over 2.5
51%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.96
No
47%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.87
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.84
6+ Goals
12%
17.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.12
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
15.25
X/1
18%
4.03
X/2
7%
10.35
X/X
12%
4.78
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
25.5
2/2
7%
8.94
2/X
6%
17.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 9% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
57%
+0.4pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.6pp
19%
Away Win
18%
+1.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
53%
-4.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
47%
+4.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
47%
+6.3pp
47%
BTTS No
53%
-6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Gijon EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Zaragoza EU Bookmakers 21%
-10% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -19%
1.54/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.33
-11% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
324 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 74%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
22.2 Crosses 16.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Gijon
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Real Zaragoza
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.12 xG 1.17
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
373 Passes 264
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 23
23 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.03.2025 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza 1-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
28.09.2024 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 1-0 HT 1-0 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza İS2
05.02.2024 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza 3-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
14.10.2023 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 2-2 HT 0-1 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza İS2
22.01.2023 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 1-0 HT 1-0 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza İS2
17.09.2022 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Gijon
1-0
AWAY Real Zaragoza
0.31 xG 1.47
33% Ball Possession 67%
4 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 16
159 Passes 381
67% Pass Accuracy 84%
8 Box Touches 33
5 Crosses 40
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sporting Gijon vs Real Zaragoza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Gijon nicked a narrow win over Real Zaragoza 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sporting Gijon as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Sporting Gijon had 33% of the ball to Real Zaragoza's 67%, shots finished 4-22, expected goals 0.31 to 1.47 — on chances, Real Zaragoza could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sporting Gijon and 1.17 for Real Zaragoza.

What was the final score of Sporting Gijon vs Real Zaragoza?

Sporting Gijon 1-0 Real Zaragoza in the Spain - 2nd Division on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Gijon vs Real Zaragoza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Gijon win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Sporting Gijon 57%, draw 23%, Real Zaragoza 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Gijon) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Gijon) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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