Fortaleza 1-0 Flamengo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 26 Oct 2025

📅26/10/2025 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.48
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
49%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.11
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
3.57
6+ Goals
8%
14.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.11 — our 31% vs market 25.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
8.27
1/2
10%
24.45
1/X
10%
16.15
X/1
9%
9.99
X/2
12%
4.19
X/X
14%
4.88
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
27%
2.16
2/X
6%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
19%
+1.3pp
30%
Draw
25%
+5.0pp
49%
Away Win
55%
-6.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+5.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-5.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.6pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Flamengo EU Bookmakers 59%
+14% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +2%
0.97/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.05
+11% / +62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -11%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
257 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 393 · 81%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.3
15.5 Crosses 16.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortaleza
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Flamengo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.80 xG 1.49
38% Ball Possession 62%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
263 Passes 486
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
02.06.2025 Flamengo Flamengo 5-0 HT 1-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
27.11.2024 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-0 HT 0-0 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
12.07.2024 Flamengo Flamengo 1-2 HT 1-1 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
05.11.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-2 HT 0-1 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
02.07.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 2-0 HT 1-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
29.09.2022 Fortaleza Fortaleza 3-2 HT 1-2 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortaleza
1-0
AWAY Flamengo
0.89 xG 1.19
19% Ball Possession 81%
5 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 11
106 Passes 622
62% Pass Accuracy 88%
5 Box Touches 39
7 Crosses 33
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fortaleza vs Flamengo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza squeezed past Flamengo 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Flamengo at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Fortaleza had 19% of the ball to Flamengo's 81%, shots finished 5-18, expected goals 0.89 to 1.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Flamengo led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Fortaleza and 2.00 for Flamengo.

What was the final score of Fortaleza vs Flamengo?

Fortaleza 1-0 Flamengo in the Brazil - Serie A on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortaleza vs Flamengo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Fortaleza 21%, draw 30%, Flamengo 49%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Flamengo), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Flamengo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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