Sport Recife 1-2 Mirassol FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 26 Oct 2025

📅26/10/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.57
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
40%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.8
Over 2.5
53%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.73
No
45%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.06
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.62
6+ Goals
12%
15.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.11
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
28.5
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
11%
5.97
X/2
8%
5.48
X/X
11%
4.48
2/1
5%
30.5
2/2
26%
3.59
2/X
8%
12.9
Value flag · 1/2 at 28.5 — our 6% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
35%
-0.4pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.9pp
40%
Away Win
37%
+3.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.2pp
45%
BTTS No
46%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Mirassol FC EU Bookmakers 40%
+2% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +54% / +54%
1.20/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.60
-7% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% /
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
304 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 80%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
22.8 Crosses 12.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sport Recife
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Mirassol FC
0.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
0.75 xG 1.03
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
309 Passes 375
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.06.2025 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
30.09.2024 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
17.06.2024 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-0 HT 0-0 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC BR2
04.11.2023 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 2-1 HT 1-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
10.07.2023 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-0 HT 0-0 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sport Recife
1-2
AWAY Mirassol FC
0.55 xG 0.86
36% Ball Possession 64%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 1
246 Passes 525
82% Pass Accuracy 91%
14 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sport Recife vs Mirassol FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mirassol FC nicked a narrow win over Sport Recife 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 25% / 40%) promised a tight game; Mirassol FC found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sport Recife had 36% of the ball to Mirassol FC's 64%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 0.55 to 0.86.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Mirassol FC led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.40 goals for Sport Recife and 0.60 for Mirassol FC.

What was the final score of Sport Recife vs Mirassol FC?

Sport Recife 1-2 Mirassol FC in the Brazil - Serie A on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sport Recife vs Mirassol FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mirassol FC win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sport Recife 35%, draw 25%, Mirassol FC 40%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mirassol FC), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mirassol FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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