Leon 1-1 Pumas UNAM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 26 Oct 2025

📅26/10/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.99
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
39%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.91
Over 2.5
55%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.68
No
42%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.3
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
26%
3.28
6+ Goals
12%
12.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
13%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
30%
+8.1pp
22%
Draw
26%
-4.0pp
39%
Away Win
44%
-4.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
48%
-3.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
52%
+3.3pp
58%
BTTS Yes
56%
+2.9pp
42%
BTTS No
44%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leon EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 48%
+0% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.24/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.71/1.15
+1% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +6%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
277 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 79%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
19.3 Crosses 20.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leon
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Pumas UNAM
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.23 xG 1.50
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
299 Passes 315
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
31.03.2025 Leon Leon 1-2 HT 1-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
07.07.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 4-1 HT 2-1 Leon Leon MEK
15.04.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-0 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
01.11.2023 Leon Leon 1-1 HT 0-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
22.01.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 4-1 HT 2-1 Leon Leon MEK
10.07.2022 Leon Leon 3-3 HT 0-2 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leon
1-1
AWAY Pumas UNAM
1.55 xG 2.37
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
432 Passes 393
90% Pass Accuracy 89%
19 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Leon vs Pumas UNAM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leon and Pumas UNAM couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 22% / 39% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, both teams to score (58%) landed while over 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Leon had 52% of the ball to Pumas UNAM's 48%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.55 to 2.37.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pumas UNAM led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Leon and 2.50 for Pumas UNAM.

What was the final score of Leon vs Pumas UNAM?

Leon 1-1 Pumas UNAM in the Mexico - Primera on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leon vs Pumas UNAM?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pumas UNAM win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Leon 38%, draw 22%, Pumas UNAM 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Pumas UNAM), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pumas UNAM) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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