Guadalajara 4-1 Atlas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 26 Oct 2025

📅26/10/2025 · 🕒04:07 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.49
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
20%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.5
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.14
6+ Goals
10%
10.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.5 — our 26% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
11%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
63%
-4.9pp
22%
Draw
21%
+0.6pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+4.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.3pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Atlas EU Bookmakers 19%
-2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -2%
1.66/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.61
-7% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
348 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 77%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.4
20.9 Crosses 13.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guadalajara
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Atlas
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.58 xG 1.36
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
310 Passes 222
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
24 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
20.04.2025 Atlas Atlas 1-1 HT 1-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
22.11.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-2 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
06.10.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-3 HT 0-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
28.04.2024 Atlas Atlas 0-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
08.10.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 4-1 HT 1-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
15.05.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guadalajara
4-1
AWAY Atlas
2.55 xG 0.73
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
388 Passes 346
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 8
11 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Guadalajara vs Atlas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara ran out comfortable winners over Atlas 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Guadalajara as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Guadalajara had 52% of the ball to Atlas's 48%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 2.55 to 0.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Guadalajara and 1.17 for Atlas.

What was the final score of Guadalajara vs Atlas?

Guadalajara 4-1 Atlas in the Mexico - Primera on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guadalajara vs Atlas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 58%, draw 22%, Atlas 20%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guadalajara) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✗ BTTS No
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