Alfreton Town 2-4 South Shields — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 26 Nov 2024

📅26/11/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.19
2-3 Goals
44%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
3.76
6+ Goals
8%
15.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 28% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
7%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-2.8pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.0pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+4.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.2pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alfreton Town EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY South Shields EU Bookmakers 25%
+12% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.76/0.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.20
-1% / +71% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +36%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
334 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alfreton Town
1W-0D-1L
AWAY South Shields
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
13.02.2024 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 1-0 HT 1-0 South Shields South Shields İCON
05.08.2023 South Shields South Shields 3-1 HT 0-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alfreton Town
2-4
AWAY South Shields
45% Ball Possession 55%
6 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 9
6 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Alfreton Town vs South Shields
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

South Shields saw off Alfreton Town 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Alfreton Town at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Alfreton Town had 45% of the ball to South Shields's 55%, shots finished 6-17.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Alfreton Town and 1.50 for South Shields.

What was the final score of Alfreton Town vs South Shields?

Alfreton Town 2-4 South Shields in the England - Conference on 26/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alfreton Town vs South Shields?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alfreton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Alfreton Town 50%, draw 23%, South Shields 26%. The final score 2-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Alfreton Town) ✗ Under 2.5
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