Buxton vs Alfreton Town Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Buxton v Alfreton Town — Team-Based Signals
Buxton vs Alfreton Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 1-1
Buxton
İCON
0-0
HT 0-0
Alfreton Town
İCON
3-0
HT 1-0
Buxton
İCON
3-0
HT 2-0
Buxton
HAZ
1-4
HT 1-3
Alfreton Town
HAZ
Buxton 3-2 Alfreton Town — Actual Match Statistics
Buxton nicked a narrow win over Alfreton Town 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 36% / 30% — and on the day Buxton made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Buxton had 51% of the ball to Alfreton Town's 49%, shots finished 11-13.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alfreton Town led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Buxton and 2.33 for Alfreton Town.
What was the final score of Buxton vs Alfreton Town?
Buxton 3-2 Alfreton Town in the England - Conference on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Buxton vs Alfreton Town?
Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Buxton 34%, draw 36%, Alfreton Town 30%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.