Birmingham 2-0 Burton Albion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
60%
1.29
Draw
24%
4.95
Away
16%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
2.18
Over
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.13
No
55%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1
25%
3.99
2-3
39%
1.8
4-5
25%
2.87
6+
11%
8.76
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.99 — our 25% vs market 18.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.5
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
25.5
X/1
22%
3.32
X/2
6%
20.95
X/X
11%
7.83
2/1
7%
24.3
2/2
5%
17.3
2/X
7%
26.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Birmingham win — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
73%
-12.8pp
24%
Draw
17%
+6.4pp
16%
Away Win
10%
+6.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
43%
+1.9pp
55%
BTTS No
57%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birmingham EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Burton Albion EU Bookmakers 12%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +27%
2.13/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.67
-16% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +6%
64% Ball Possession 36%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
465 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 208 · 67%
34.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
26.7 Crosses 13.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Birmingham
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Burton Albion
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
278 Passes 225
69% Pass Accuracy 64%
28 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
16.07.2022 Burton Albion Burton Albion 1-2 HT 0-1 Birmingham Birmingham HAZ
07.04.2018 Birmingham Birmingham 1-1 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İNCL
06.01.2018 Birmingham Birmingham 1-0 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion FAK
18.08.2017 Burton Albion Burton Albion 2-1 HT 0-1 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
17.04.2017 Birmingham Birmingham 0-2 HT 0-1 Burton Albion Burton Albion İNCL
21.10.2016 Burton Albion Burton Albion 2-0 HT 1-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Birmingham
2-0
AWAY Burton Albion
1.30 xG 1.16
79% Ball Possession 21%
13 Total Shots 3
2 Shots on Target 0
8 Corners 0
690 Passes 113
88% Pass Accuracy 55%
23 Box Touches 7
28 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Birmingham vs Burton Albion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham beat Burton Albion 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Birmingham as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Birmingham had 79% of the ball to Burton Albion's 21%, shots finished 13-3, expected goals 1.30 to 1.16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burton Albion led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Birmingham and 1.33 for Burton Albion.

What was the final score of Birmingham vs Burton Albion?

Birmingham 2-0 Burton Albion in the England - 1st Division on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birmingham vs Burton Albion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Birmingham win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Birmingham 60%, draw 24%, Burton Albion 16%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Birmingham), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Birmingham) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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