Shrewsbury 1-0 Lincoln City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.87
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
46%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.67
Over 2.5
39%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.99
No
57%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.53
2-3 Goals
40%
1.71
4-5 Goals
17%
4.16
6+ Goals
9%
21.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.53 — our 34% vs market 31.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
7.09
1/2
6%
28.0
1/X
9%
16.0
X/1
8%
8.43
X/2
16%
3.98
X/X
12%
4.33
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
24%
2.49
2/X
8%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
22%
+3.2pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
46%
Away Win
52%
-5.5pp
61%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.9pp
39%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.9pp
43%
BTTS Yes
46%
-2.9pp
57%
BTTS No
54%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shrewsbury EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Lincoln City EU Bookmakers 56%
-3% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +17%
0.74/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.00
-24% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +6%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
235 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 75%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.8
18.6 Crosses 17.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shrewsbury
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Lincoln City
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.97 xG 1.27
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
241 Passes 322
66% Pass Accuracy 74%
15 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.02.2024 Lincoln City Lincoln City 3-0 HT 1-0 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury İN1
19.08.2023 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 0-1 HT 0-0 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
07.05.2023 Lincoln City Lincoln City 1-0 HT 0-0 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury İN1
03.12.2022 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 2-0 HT 1-0 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
26.03.2022 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 1-0 HT 0-0 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
30.10.2021 Lincoln City Lincoln City 1-1 HT 1-0 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shrewsbury
1-0
AWAY Lincoln City
1.87 xG 1.18
30% Ball Possession 70%
7 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
99 Passes 373
48% Pass Accuracy 76%
6 Box Touches 32
17 Crosses 27
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Shrewsbury vs Lincoln City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shrewsbury squeezed past Lincoln City 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Lincoln City at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Shrewsbury had 30% of the ball to Lincoln City's 70%, shots finished 7-8, expected goals 1.87 to 1.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lincoln City led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Shrewsbury and 1.00 for Lincoln City.

What was the final score of Shrewsbury vs Lincoln City?

Shrewsbury 1-0 Lincoln City in the England - 1st Division on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shrewsbury vs Lincoln City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lincoln City win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Shrewsbury 26%, draw 28%, Lincoln City 46%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Lincoln City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lincoln City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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