Reading 4-1 Northampton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
24%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
3.85
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
2.93
6+ Goals
11%
9.24
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.85 — our 24% vs market 19.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.3
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.1
X/1
13%
4.27
X/2
8%
8.98
X/X
12%
5.52
2/1
11%
22.1
2/2
10%
6.45
2/X
7%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-4.1pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.2pp
24%
Away Win
23%
+1.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.6pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Reading EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Northampton Town EU Bookmakers 26%
+11% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.25/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.28
+30% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
368 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 70%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
15.6 Crosses 15.4
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Reading
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Northampton Town
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.57 xG 1.33
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
336 Passes 240
70% Pass Accuracy 63%
23 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
29.03.2024 Reading Reading 1-0 HT 0-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
03.10.2023 Northampton Town Northampton Town 3-1 HT 2-0 Reading Reading İN1
24.08.2010 Reading Reading 2-2 HT 1-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İNLK
01.04.2002 Reading Reading 0-0 HT 0-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
03.11.2001 Northampton Town Northampton Town 0-2 HT 0-0 Reading Reading İN1
01.01.2001 Reading Reading 1-1 HT 0-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Reading
4-1
AWAY Northampton Town
1.31 xG 0.44
62% Ball Possession 38%
8 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 5
322 Passes 158
75% Pass Accuracy 63%
14 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Reading vs Northampton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Reading cruised past Northampton Town 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Reading as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Reading had 62% of the ball to Northampton Town's 38%, shots finished 8-7, expected goals 1.31 to 0.44.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Reading had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Reading and 1.00 for Northampton Town.

What was the final score of Reading vs Northampton Town?

Reading 4-1 Northampton Town in the England - 1st Division on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Reading vs Northampton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Reading win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Reading 49%, draw 27%, Northampton Town 24%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Reading), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Reading) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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