Bolton Wanderers 1-2 Barnsley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.07
Over 2.5
46%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.72
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
2.99
6+ Goals
10%
9.76
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.72 — our 28% vs market 20.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.74
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.4
X/1
19%
4.69
X/2
9%
7.24
X/X
11%
5.24
2/1
7%
23.4
2/2
16%
5.01
2/X
9%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
47%
-8.1pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.0pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+4.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+10.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-10.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.0pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bolton Wanderers EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Barnsley EU Bookmakers 32%
+5% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / -2%
1.33/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.28
+10% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
296 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 69%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
18.0 Crosses 17.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bolton Wanderers
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Barnsley
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.72 xG 1.05
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
310 Passes 186
70% Pass Accuracy 62%
23 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.05.2024 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 2-3 HT 2-1 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
03.05.2024 Barnsley Barnsley 1-3 HT 0-1 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN1
05.03.2024 Barnsley Barnsley 2-2 HT 1-0 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN1
03.02.2024 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 1-1 HT 0-1 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
19.05.2023 Barnsley Barnsley 1-0 HT 1-0 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN1
13.05.2023 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 1-1 HT 0-0 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bolton Wanderers
1-2
AWAY Barnsley
1.07 xG 1.29
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 8
267 Passes 248
73% Pass Accuracy 73%
15 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Bolton Wanderers vs Barnsley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barnsley nicked a narrow win over Bolton Wanderers 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (39% / 29% / 32%) promised a tight game; Barnsley found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Bolton Wanderers had 52% of the ball to Barnsley's 48%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.07 to 1.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barnsley led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Bolton Wanderers and 1.50 for Barnsley.

What was the final score of Bolton Wanderers vs Barnsley?

Bolton Wanderers 1-2 Barnsley in the England - 1st Division on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bolton Wanderers vs Barnsley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bolton Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Bolton Wanderers 39%, draw 29%, Barnsley 32%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bolton Wanderers) ✗ Under 2.5
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