Matlock Town 4-0 Ilkeston Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.8
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
36%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
2.15
Over Pick
56%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.56
No
45%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1
21%
2-3
40%
4-5
28%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
6%
X/2
11%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
32%
+9.9pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.2pp
36%
Away Win
43%
-7.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
43%
+1.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
57%
-1.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.2pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matlock Town EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Ilkeston Town EU Bookmakers 48%
-6% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -11%
1.34/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.55
-7% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -12%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
322 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 403 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matlock Town
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Ilkeston Town
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 1
5 Yellow Cards 2
01.04.2024 Matlock Town Matlock Town 1-2 Ilkeston Town Ilkeston Town İNGNLP
26.12.2023 Ilkeston Town Ilkeston Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Matlock Town Matlock Town İNGNLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Matlock Town
4-0
AWAY Ilkeston Town
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 7
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Matlock Town vs Ilkeston Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matlock Town cruised past Ilkeston Town 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Matlock Town as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (56%) landed while both teams to score (55%) missed.

On the day, Matlock Town had 55% of the ball to Ilkeston Town's 45%, shots finished 12-11.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Matlock Town and 1.00 for Ilkeston Town.

What was the final score of Matlock Town vs Ilkeston Town?

Matlock Town 4-0 Ilkeston Town in the England - Non League Premier on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matlock Town vs Ilkeston Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Matlock Town win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Matlock Town 42%, draw 23%, Ilkeston Town 36%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Matlock Town), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Matlock Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNGNLP More England - Non League Premier
26 Dec 2024
00:00 Mickleover Sports vs Ashton United Analysis →
16:00 Stockton Town vs Hebburn Town Analysis →
16:00 Winchester City vs AFC Totton Analysis →
16:00 Sholing vs Wimborne Town Analysis →
16:00 Leiston vs Lowestoft Town Analysis →
16:00 AFC Sudbury vs Bishops Stortford Analysis →