Ruthin Town 3-1 Denbigh Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 26 Dec 2025

📅26/12/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.69
Draw
19%
3.94
Away
58%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
Over 2.5
67%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.46
No
37%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
18%
1/X
3%
X/1
5%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
30%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
24%
-0.5pp
19%
Draw
22%
-2.8pp
58%
Away Win
55%
+3.3pp
63%
BTTS Yes
64%
-0.9pp
37%
BTTS No
36%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ruthin Town EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Denbigh Town EU Bookmakers 59%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -28% / -28%
1.10/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.73/2.24
-24% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -45%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
304 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ruthin Town
1W-3D-1L
AWAY Denbigh Town
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
24.10.2025 Denbigh Town Denbigh Town 2-2 HT 0-2 Ruthin Town Ruthin Town GALFAW
22.02.2025 Ruthin Town Ruthin Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Denbigh Town Denbigh Town GALFAW
26.12.2024 Denbigh Town Denbigh Town 2-2 HT 0-0 Ruthin Town Ruthin Town GALFAW
01.01.2024 Ruthin Town Ruthin Town 4-0 HT 2-0 Denbigh Town Denbigh Town GALFAW
26.12.2023 Denbigh Town Denbigh Town 2-1 HT 0-1 Ruthin Town Ruthin Town GALFAW
POST-MATCH Ruthin Town vs Denbigh Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ruthin Town beat Denbigh Town 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Denbigh Town at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (67%), both teams to score (63%) came in.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Ruthin Town and 1.40 for Denbigh Town.

What was the final score of Ruthin Town vs Denbigh Town?

Ruthin Town 3-1 Denbigh Town in the Wales - FAW Championship on 26/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ruthin Town vs Denbigh Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Denbigh Town win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Ruthin Town 23%, draw 19%, Denbigh Town 58%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Denbigh Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Denbigh Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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